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Statistical Improbability
Posted in 
Backgammon
Statistical Improbability
Posted in 
Backgammon
Statistical Improbability
I have raised this in the past and of course they have a pat answer that does not answer the question.  I have been tracking it for over 400 games and I am black over 70%  of the time.  That is way outside any statistical norm.  There must be something built into the site's algorithm to make players black or white.  It it was in the 50%+ range I could understand, but not over 70%.  So cue the answer that does not answer the issue.
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Hi there,

Thank you for reaching out and for sharing the data you’ve tracked over your last 400 games. We genuinely appreciate players who take such an active interest in the mechanics of the game, as transparency and fairness are our top priorities.

I understand that seeing a 70% distribution for one color over a sample of 400 games feels statistically jarring. When we expect a 50/50 split, a streak like that naturally leads to questions about the underlying algorithm.

To address your concern directly: There is no mechanism or intent within our system to favor one color over the other for any specific player.

Here are a few points that might help clarify how this happens:

Independent Randomness: Our random color assignment operates like a coin flip for every new match. It has no "memory" of your previous games. In statistics, even with a fair system, "clustering" can occur, where one outcome appears significantly more often than another over a medium-sized sample.

The Nature of Probability: While 70% over 400 games is indeed an outlier, in a community with thousands of players and millions of matches, these types of statistical anomalies will occasionally occur to a small percentage of users by pure chance.

System Integrity: Our platform is built on the principle of a level playing field. Assigning a specific color offers no advantage to the system and does not influence the outcome of the matches or the calculation of skill levels.

That being said, we don't want to dismiss your experience. We have passed your observations along to our technical team to perform a routine check on the random distribution parameters to ensure everything is functioning exactly as intended.

We hope to see your statistics balance out as you continue to play.
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I have been a subscriber for a couple of years but I am unwilling to pay again.  I am still averaging 70% as black to start.  This is such a statistical anomaly that it cannot be explain away.  And despite your excuse going first does give you an advantage if you get a good roll.  

But more importantly your response that you are using a random dice defies any experience .  I suspect that you are using a programmed algorithm and it creates rolls to make hits and allow escapes with highly improbable rolls.  Example, yesterday my opponent had two tiles on the bar and only a double 4 would not only get them both on, but it would allow a hit of my open tile.  It happens way too many times and everyone playing on this site has come to realize it.

The other major problem is that you discourage multiple games.  If you win the first game the point differential rewards the lose of that game if they play a second.  Not sure why you think that is a fair system.
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At this point, the discussion is repeating the same claims without any new evidence or technical information being presented.

Random systems can produce outcomes that feel improbable over short or even extended sample sizes.  Disagreeing with the explanation does not in itself demonstrate manipulation of the game mechanics.

The platform does not manually assign advantages, favourable rolls, or colour distribution to specific players.  These accusations have been raised many times over the years, and no evidence has ever been provided showing that the game outcomes are being intentionally manipulated.

Tournament formats, dice rolls, starting colours, streaks, and probability can all lead to frustrating experiences at times, especially in games heavily influenced by randomness.

The matter has already been reviewed and answered.  Further repetition of the same allegations will not change that answer.
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