Dear moderators, what is the setting point for probability when you should have hammer or not in the first end? I guess it should be 50%/50%. Playing with Pikachu last 8 games , he got all 8 hammers out of 8 1-ender in a row. Which almost impossible: probability of that happening is 0.39 % !! In other words it could happens once in 2048 games with Pikachu , I played just 9 games with him in total!! The probability of getting hammer for Pikachu in the next game with me would be 0.195% !! So I need to play Pukachu 4608 games to let it happening)))) I think that’s why Pikachu has got so many points, having hammers in almost every single game !)) Thanks for fair settings, software specialists !)))
hammer draw
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Curling
hammer draw
Your math is a little off. it's 1/256 chance to win 8 coin flips in a row. The chance of winning the next coin toss after that is 1/2.
If you don't believe me. Look at the math yourself.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
1/256 shots happen. It should happen to you eventually.
just toss a coin and stop tossing when you have at least 5 or 6 heads or tails in row sequence, do not wait for 8 as in Pikachu example, because it will take you 2 or more days to achieve ))) ,and you will know what means IN REAL having something happen 8 times in row with 50/50 normal probability ))
Saying that a probabilty of 0.39 % = almost impossible is incorrect. Many players have played thousands of games, so the probability of this instance to happen now and then is very high. In case you were correct, I could bankrupt any casino in the world :)
You will not bankrupt ANY casino (Roulette example): 1) In general , (mathematically) all casino will have their profit of 1/37 of all its cash flow If the Cash flow per day ~ 100K-1000K $ for the average casino, the profit would be 2.7-27K $ per day, not bad. 2) All casino have their maximum bet, and for example if you are unlucky having 8 losses in row ( black/red bet example)casino will not allow you to bet 9th time with increase (1 $ -first bet, if you use triple increase the 9th bet should be 6561$, you know what I mean). So casino wil have all your 8 bet money 3) Many casino are not fair, still ( magnets on land casino, online casino ) – so try to bankrupt ), if you are lucky - yes ))))
You are still wrong sir. "The probability of getting hammer for Pikachu in the next game with me would be 0.195% !! So I need to play Pukachu 4608 games to let it happening))))" This is not true. The probability is 1/2 on the next toss.
basically what YOUR math is saying is that the 50/50 chance of a fair coin gets worse for the loser the more you lose. Ridiculous.
When you have a very simple probability task you do not need to read sites check math, or judge someone's degree. It’s very simple: Try to toss a coin and you WILL know what means to have 8 heads or tails IN A RAW .)))) I do not think you will catch 8 heads or tails in the first 9 tosses))) UNLESS you are 99.61% lucky guy))
Yeah not impossible. Get a life. It really isn't. What's you're math degree in? Addition? Surely not statistics. It takes 1/256 shot to get 8 in a row. To get the 9th in a row is a 50/50 shot. In fact, to get 8 heads then one tail is still a 1/512 shot. You are stuck on a fallacy, learn facts.
Someone should close this thread. I'm done here, I can't stand non-critical thinkers and liars... a degree in math... good riddance.
1) Have a coin 2) Switch on the camera and position it where you toss a coin so it can be clearly seen what falls, head or tale. 3) toss a coin and stop tossing when you have 9 heads or 9 tales in row,( prob is 1/256 ) 4) send me the video of that happened )))) Probability is not as simple as you think, searching the internet will not help, you need to have a degree, and a degree in math,but not a degree in judging someone’s degree ))))
I think it would be cool to do a draw to the button with no sweeping to determine hammer at the start of a match. This is how the World Curling Tour does it in real games, and I think it would add a lot to this game.
people win the lottery, the odds of winning the lottery are one in 14 million. And you're telling me that your 1/256 shot doesn't happen... whatever go back to school.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/story/2009/11/09/f-lotteries-what-are-the-odds.html
Let me ask you question independent on the last result. Do you know Bayes' theorem? Can you explain it to me with your math degree?
TheRake, The Bayes' theorem is a part of elementary math in probability theory; you do not need a degree to understand it.))) High school degree is enough. The closest law applied in our case - is a law of large numbers (LLN). Not a law of a lottery winner)))), even though those winners do exist. In our case the lottery winner is Pikachu. But he wins every single lottery, which was suspicious for me and I opened this discussion. By the way - do not forget to send me the video I mentioned above, are you done there? ))) Sorry , man, but you are trying to judge my intelligence )), Bayes’ theorem)))))