hey i was just wondering how does getting red and blue work cuz i got blue like 14 times ina row (if u get red and play perfectly u win but u cant win on blue if u play perfectly)
Red And Blue System on Connect4
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Dear Moderators
Red And Blue System on Connect4
it's random. if it's not random, they're not gonna tell you. Cuz then cheaters and runners would get to always be red. Probability of flipping 14 heads in a row: (1/2)^14 = 0.00006 = 1 in 16,600 impressive! If this doesn't happen often to people (it sure hasn't happened to me), then it's legit and you should have gone to the casino that day. If it does happen frequently, then fod's random number generator needs fixing.
"(1/2)^14 = 0.00006 = 1 in 16,600" which also means that if you play 16000 games, it will be very likely to happen sooner or later. If we take that an average player plays 1000 games, you get 1/16 chance to experience something like this during those 1000 games, and even more if you play more. So it is not that implausible when you play many many games... I have never seen enyone complaining about being red 10 times in a row, though :s OP
odds of 17 blues in a row = 1 in 131,000 odds of 17 blues out of 18 games = 18 * (.5^18) = 1 in 14,500 odds of
17 or more[i/] blues out of 18 games = 20(.5^18) = 1 in 13,100 either way you look at it, it's rare
exactly OP, which is why i said, if it doesn't happen often (which i doubt does), then nothing fishy is going on. Lots of games are played each day so of course you'd expect that to happen eventually.
"If we take that an average player plays 1000 games, you get 1/16 chance to experience something like this during those 1000 games" not that it's important, but im gonna correct this just for the nerdy fun of doing odds. 1/16 sounds logical but it doesn't work in a linear fashion like that, it's a logarithmic function approaching 1 - (1/e) First of all, the 1/16,000 doesn't mean 1/16,000 games. It means 1/16,000
sets of 14 games
. To get a per game answer, you need to multiply 16,600 * 14 = 232,400. So really it's supposed to happen if you play 232,400 games. Probability of getting 14 blues in a row during the course of 1000 games: (16,599 / 16,600) = probability of NOT getting 14 in a row in a given set of 14 games. Call it X 1000 / 14 = 71.43 = that's how many sets of 14 games there are in 1000 games P(not getting 14 in a row in 1000 games) = X ^ 71 = .9957 P(getting it) = 1 - .9957 = .0043 = 1 in 233 Which fits with what i said about 232,000 games because 233 * 1000 = 233,000 (meaning i rounded in the calcs) Probability of getting 14 in a row in 232,400 games: 232,400 / 14 = 16600 sets of 14 X ^ 16600 = .3678 = approximately 1/e 1 - .38 = .6322 So you see, even if you do 16,600 trials (by playing 232,400 games) of the 1/16,600 chance, you still only have a 63% chance of getting it. I guess it's still not fishy because that just means you need 460 people to play 1000 games. (not 232 because they are playing against each other). The site has been up for what like 10 years? 1000 games is not the average but i'm sure there were well over 460 people to play connect four. Plus, if you say the odds of getting
either
color 14 in a row instead of saying it must be blue, then it would be 1/115,000 games, meaning 230 people must play 1000 games. However, this better have only happened like four times at most lol. Is there no archive of games? If it's a big list, and if it has the red and blue information, then you could have a program search for 14 of a color in a row and report how many times it has happened. That would be a way to test the randomness.
1/2)^14 = 0.00006 = 1 in 16,600" which also means that if you play 16000 games, it will
be very likely to happen sooner or later. If we take that an average player plays 1000 games, you get 1/16 chance to experience something like this during those 1000 games, and even more if you play more. So it is not that implausible when you play many many games... I have never seen enyone complaining about being red 10 times in a row, though :s OP
ah so you actually watch this forum why wouldn't you post in topic called "Points"? feeling ashame?
Massa's right in what he's sayin Reiki stop licking him so bad, OP should have the decency to reply to our post and answer the question's he's avoided all these years ! >:)
"First of all, the 1/16,000 doesn't mean 1/16,000 games. It means 1/16,000 sets of 14 games. To get a per game answer, you need to multiply 16,600 * 14 = 232,400." I will have to disagree here. 16000 sets of 14 game in this case is 16000+13. E.g. if you have: bbbbbbbrrrrrrr first set of 14 games, then rrrrrrrbbbbbbb for the 2nd set of 14, then you obviously have 14 r's in row if you put the 2 sets together, so it is actually not 2 sets of 14, but 15 sets of 14's, and the 8th set is 14 r's in a row. ;) OP
For the complainers here: I do not check every forum post. If you have a serious problem, you could try to create a more accurate description. So if you put a title "points" that might not imply that there are inappropriate ads. Or even better: write to support, maybe include a screenshot, an URL or something. Fortunately there were some more concerned members who took the right way of notifying us, and the inappropriate ads had been removed a day ago or two. OP
How did the "The New Mike" got perm. banned on both of his accounts? He told me that The New Mike with plain letters was banned for forum abbuse and than his other account with the wierd letters got perm banned for second banned invasion. He was never banned in the first place? This all happened on the same day. Please give mike another chance, he is a really good guy and he can post good thoughts when he wants too, but he was just trying to help FlyOrDie be a better place, but instead you banned him!!! Please OP can you give mike a chance or atleast look at what I'm saying. Mike was perm banned for banned invasion when he never had an account banned in the first place. Both the mikes got banned on the same day? Please we want mike back!!!
guys dont you get it,its inpossible to get 14 times blue,obv hes lieing....he alwys talks lies,no offence:p
This subject tell that you care for points obv,14 times blue huh ?End i dont need to ask no1.;).
quote op: " 16000 sets of 14 game in this case is 16000+13. E.g. if you have: bbbbbbbrrrrrrr first set of 14 games, then rrrrrrrbbbbbbb for the 2nd set of 14, then you obviously have 14 r's in row if you put the 2 sets together, so it is actually not 2 sets of 14, but 15 sets of 14's, and the 8th set is 14 r's in a row. " oh snap i didnt think about that at all lol. 232,000 did sound high in my head but i was just trusting the numbers. So for any number of games, there will be N - 13 sets of 14 in it. So to have 16,600 sets of 14 we of course need 16,613 games, like you said. So now, returning to the probability of getting it in 1000 games: 1000 - 13 = 987. (16,599 / 16,600) ^ 987 = .942 1 - .942 = 5.77 % chance, or 1 in 17.3 In 8,300 games, it's a 40% chance. In 11,505 games, it's 50% In 16,600 games, it's 63% In 50,000 games, it's 95% Thx for that OP i woulda gone on doing wacky odds, which would be bad considering im a gambling addict lol.