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double is kill my points
Posted in 
Backgammon
double is kill my points
Posted in 
Backgammon
double is kill my points
server is no korrekt
i get all matches never same gegner 6666 4444 5555v 22233333
server again take 66   55  44 22 double  not to me
just had exactly the same sequence against me

one - maybe random

twice - very unlikely

three times - cannot be explained by random


And again - this time all during the final take off to hand the opponent the game on a plate 
And again - four doubles in the take off alone

given that the probablity of a double in backgammon is slightly less than one in six

Although the occasional run of doubles is possible - albeit unlikely - I should be seeing a run of four doubles every thousand games or so.
Another run of four successive doubles

Why does this occur as often as it does?


and another run of four doubles
"I should be seeing a run of four doubles every thousand games or so."

This assumption is simply wrong according to probability theories. 
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Probability of four consecutive doubles :-

1/6 X 1/6 X 1/6 X 1/6   =   1 / 1296


Are you saying that this equates to four doubles being a frequent occurance?


I am saying that one "turn" is not equivalent to one "game".

So you should see four doubles in a row more frequently than one in 1296 _games_.
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Depending on how many turns are there in the games, there should be one row of four doubles in around 40-50 games.

So you should see one in two days if you are playing 20 games a day, or one in 4-5 days if you are playing 10 games per day. Which is more or less acceptable for you based on your forum posts. 

Any other probability questions that I could help with? 


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